Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Dems Trail Badly
In Early Returns

Florida:  Early votingis over and it looks terrible for the Democrats.  Here is the updated chart:

Party        2010           2008            2006
Dem        36.5%        45.6%         43.6%
Ind          14.3%        17.1%         15.4%
Rep         49.2%        37.3%         41.0%

Yes, you’re reading that right.
GOP outperforming 2008 by 12 points.

Already, 2.2 million votes have been cast — perhaps not half of what will be cast overall, but not too far from it. And bear in mind, this is a state with 4.6 million registered Democrats and only 4 million registered Republicans (plus 2.2 million independents). Something big might be happening down there — it’s at least clear that the state GOP has been working on its early vote operation.

Not fatal, but not good news for Alex Sink, the Democratic nominee in the close governor’s race. Also not good news for Democratic Reps. Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, Ron Klein, or Allen Boyd. Nor for Joe Garcia, the Democratic nominee for the open 25th Congressional District in South Florida.

Pennsylvania: The latest absentee ballot statistics released show a strong Republican tilt in the Keystone State where 53,226 (59%) absentee ballots have been returned by registered Republicans compared with 37,631 (41%) by registered Democrats.

Worse still for Democrats, the enthusiasm gap pollsters have predicted appears to be coming true. So far, Democrats have returned 55% of the absentee ballots they requested. Republicans have returned 67%.

Nevada: In Democratic Clark County, Republicans UP 13 points from a 22-point Democratic advantage in 2008. In Reno's Washoe County, Republicans UP 18 points from a 12-point Democrat advantage in 2008.

Colorado:  Republican over Democrat early returns by 61,500 this year, where Democrats were up over Republicans in 2008 by 25,000 early ballots.  That is a swing of over 86,500 to the GOP!

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